IMA Asia‘s revising its forecasts for economic growth. Its main scenario (with a 60% probability) is for a weak Asia-led recovery starting now, and edging up over the next three years.

Global GDP Growth - Three-year scenarios

The more pessimistic forecast, (20% probability) is for a double-dip recession, triggered by policy failures in advanced countries. The growth comes from elsewhere, mainly from China and some from India.

The optimistic scenario, also at 20% probability, relies on fast reforms in the advanced countries couple with strong demand in Asia.

But it won’t be a return to the status quo ante. The buzzword now is “Global Rebalancing.”

China will gain market share, at the expense of advanced countries (mainly the US). So will other developing countries; but IMA Asia doesn’t think highly of the BRIC classification (Brazil, Russia, India, China) beloved of international brokers. It notes that China is likely to gain double the global market share of the other three combined.

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While China’s growth is surging (well, surging a little less now, but still a lot by comparison with other major economies) it’s also one of the few major markets that foreign firms find even more complicated than India’s.

I think the global rebalancing is what no one in the advanced countries – including the US – wants to really think about now. Many people are looking for things to go back to what they were. It’s unsettling to think about the economic lead shifting — again. But what it will mean for many companies – especially medium to large in size – is that China and India must be grappled with.