IMA Asia‘s notes always provide a useful perspective, given that Asia is likely to be the region that will lead the world out of recession. What they’re saying now is that “2010 is set to be a bumpy, complex and challenging year for global markets and the MNCs that serve them. ”
They forecast 2010-2012 will be another 2-3 years of adjustment in Europe and North America. “We see no reason to lift our US forecast from 2.2% for 2010 and 2.8% in 2011.”
But Asia’s already growing to the point of inflation pressures. Says IMA Asia: “the outlook in Asia [is] improving with the prospect of strong demand growth by mid-2010 and rising inflation due to shortages of materials, skilled staff and shipping capacity.”
- China’s GDP growth forecast is 9.7% for 2010 and 9.4 % for 2011. Its inflation (measured as CPI growth rate) is only 4-4.5%.
- India, though, is looking at inflation as high as 15% in 2010 and 9% in 2011, off of a GDP growth rate of 7.5-7.8%.
With such a mismatch in the prospects of two major regions, the uncertainly is “reflected in wildly diverse outlooks for commodity markets.” Forecasts for growth in global oil consumption this year range from 120,000 – 1,400,000 barrels per day, with the price by early 2011 either close to US$71 or $100 .
Fasten your seat-belts.